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China has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near remote Japanese territory as China escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but vowing to defend themselves if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.