Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
